Earlier today, I updated the MODEL SELECTION worksheet inLesson 14 to incorporate the changes described in the last post. I also updated the worksheet to correct the pooling of goal probabilities at the 5-goal mark.
Read more →A sharp-eyed reader, the mysterious Mr. H., spotted a couple of typos in the Excel formulas set out in Lessons #14 and #16. In respect to Lesson #14, the typos impact the goal probability values for Liverpool in the MODEL SELECTION worksheet. The formulas set out in cells I11 to N11
Read more →In this lesson, we’ll focus our attention upon the layout of the CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES worksheet. With two notable exceptions, the formulas contained in the CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES worksheet are identical to those described in Chapter 9 of the Practical Sports Prediction Series ebooks. In the first exception, new Index/Match formulas have
Read more →For many weeks, we have been working towards a complete, automated prediction model for professional football matches. Lesson 15 (Conditional Probabilities) was supposed to be in the final lesson in the Worksheet Layout series of lessons. In preparing that Lesson, I realized that the Conditional Probabilities tab within
Read more →In this Worksheet Layout Lesson, I’ll describe the layout and underlying Excel functions within the new MODEL SELECTION tab. Adding this worksheet to your prediction model will help minimize the amount of manual, repetitive work that is required to maintain the core prediction model described in
Read more →